Issue Distortion in Alberta: Comparing Actual and Perceived Policy Attitudes

by Jared Wesley

Just how perceptive are Albertans when it comes to public opinion in the province?

As part of our January 2024 Viewpoint Alberta survey, we asked our 1,213 respondents about their own, personal attitudes on a host of public policy issues. We then asked how they think the typical Albertan feels on those same topics. The results reveal Albertans are better at sensing the public mood on certain issues more than others.

The Government’s Agenda

Public opinion is decidedly offside with many of the most high-profile policies on the provincial government’s agenda, for instance. What’s more, the public has a relatively good sense of how negatively the rest of the electorate feels about these issues.

In the following figures, green dots denote the average level of support among respondents to our survey (“actual”). Gold dots represent the average level of support our respondent’s estimate exists in the general population (“perceived).

As seen in Figure 1, only 20 percent of Albertans support “further privatizing the provincial health care system,” “creating a new provincial tax collection agency to replace the Canada Revenue Agency,” or “creating an Alberta Police Service to replace the RCMP. A slightly higher proportion (22 percent) favour “creating an Alberta Pension Plan to replace the Canada Pension Plan.” (See our recent research brief for more on pensions.)

On all four issues, people slightly overestimate the proportion of Albertans who support the government’s position. The largest gaps appear with regard to policing and pensions, although the differences between actual and perceived opinions are a matter of degree rather than kind.

In many ways, this alignment is to be expected. Albertans’ longstanding support for public health care is well-known. The government’s Fair Deal Panel raised the profile of the tax agency, policing, and pension issues, and the media has covered several public opinion polls on the issues.

Figure 1. Actual vs. Perceived Positions, Alberta Government Priorities

A larger gap exists between actual and perceived public opinion on the mandatory disclosure of children’s pronouns. We asked respondents the extent to which they agreed with “requiring schools to obtain parental consent before children under 16 are allowed to change their preferred pronouns at school.” Over half (57 percent) supported the measure, up from 44 percent in our Summer 2023 survey. When asked how the “typical Albertan” felt about the issue, 69 percent viewed them as being in support. This 12-point gap suggests that, while a majority of Albertans support mandatory disclosure, their sense of the level of consensus is somewhat higher than it actually is.

Other Policy Issues

Albertans tend to be both more supportive and less perceptive when it comes to several issues outside the government’s agenda (see Figure 2).

While support for “maintaining a consumer carbon tax" and “redirecting funds from police department budgets to social programs” remain in the 30-percent range, estimates of the “typical Albertan’s” attitudes are substantially lower.

Figure 2. Actual vs. Perceived Positions, Alternative Policy Priorities

The same goes for “transitioning Alberta’s economy away from oil and gas” and “allowing safe consumption sites to continue operating.” Over 40 percent of Albertans are actually in favour of both policies, but Albertans tend to drastically underestimate the level of public support.

Likewise, when it comes to “eliminating provincial funding of private schools,” over half of Albertans are supportive. Yet, estimated support is only 37 percent.

For the record, support for “adopting a provincial sales tax” remains very low and Albertans are well aware of that fact.

Distorting Reality

When it comes to politics, perception is reality.

If we take this old adage seriously, we need to adjust the way we conduct polling research.

Instead of simply probing personal attitudes and combining them to determine “public opinion,” we need to consider how individuals view the issue landscape around them. We need to know what people think are “typical” or “mainstream” views because those perceptions determine our sense of what’s politically correct, socially acceptable, or feasible to say, do, or think.

This notion is captured by the Overton Window — the space in which ideas transition from unthinkable concepts to popular notions that policymakers are keen to adopt.

If our own attitudes align with what we think are the prevailing views, we may feel emboldened to pressure elected officials to act. If we think our ideas lie outside the Overton Window, we may feel reluctant say or do anything in support of our values for fear of being labeled extreme.

In other words, we need to move beyond how individuals land on a particular issue to ask how they think everyone else feels on the issue.

This collective sense of social reality is critical to understanding the issue landscape in places like Alberta (see Figure 3).

Figure 3. Actual vs. Perceived Positions, All Issues

While a sizeable proportion of Albertans support accelerating the economic transition away from oil and gas, investing in harm reduction, and reducing public support of private schools, most people fail to see the consensus. As a result, despite the fact that actual support dwarfs opposition on all three measures, politicians and voters may be reluctant to move forward for fear of appearing extreme or out-of-step with what they view as mainstream opinion.

No doubt, these are only three of many such issues in Alberta. And Albertans are by no means alone in suffering from what social scientists call “false social reality” or “pluralistic ignorance”.

Nonetheless, the resulting self-censorship may be stalling efforts to take action on climate change, public service investment, and a multi-pronged approach to addressing the drug poisoning crisis, to name a few pressing policy challenges.

Methodology

Under Principal Investigator, Dr. Feodor Snagovsky, Viewpoint Alberta conducted an online survey from January 22 to February 25, 2024, among a representative sample of 1,213 Alberta adults through Leger. The figures are weighted by age, gender, and region, according to census data. A copy of the questionnaire is found here.

When measuring “perceived” public support for various policy initiatives, we took a pair of approaches. For pronoun mandates, the carbon tax, safe consumption sites, and police budgets, we asked respondents “To what extent do you think the typical Albertan supports or opposes these policies?” We then combined responses of “strongly support” and “somewhat support” to arrive at the “perceived” figure. For pensions, policing, tax collection, oil and gas transition, PST, privatizing health care, and private schools, we asked respondents “What percentage of Albertans do you think at least somewhat supports the following policies?” We then took the average response as the “perceived” figure.