Resistance to Alberta Pension Plan Persists

by Jared Wesley

Few policy ideas remain as unpopular in Alberta as abandoning the CPP in favour of a provincial pension plan.

Only 22 percent of Albertans support the move, slightly more than those who back a establishing a provincial sales tax (18 percent), provincial police force, or Alberta tax agency (20 percent each).

And the resistance is longstanding. Since we began surveying on the issue in August 2020, a solid and stable majority of Albertans have remained opposed to setting up a provincial pension plan (Figure 1). Support for the idea has rarely exceeded 1 in 4 Albertans over this period, and a vast majority appear to have made up their minds.

In our January 2024 Viewpoint Alberta survey, we dug more deeply into the attitudes surrounding an Alberta Pension Plan. This included an assessment of who is most supportive and opposed, and which of the leading arguments in the APP debate hold sway among Albertans.

Supporters and Opponents

In general, separatists (68 percent), small-c conservatives (39), and folks living in rural areas (34) are the biggest proponents of an Alberta Pension Plan. Even then, those in rural areas are more likely to oppose than support ditching the CPP.

On the other side, self-described moderates (74 percent) and progressives (69) are the biggest opponents of the idea of abandoning the CPP. Women (62 percent) and suburbanites (60) are three times as likely to oppose as support establishing an Alberta Pension Plan.

Age and length of residence also matter. The older someone is and the longer they have lived in Alberta or Canada, the more likely they are to oppose adopting a provincial pension plan. People who report feeling “not at all attached to Alberta” or “strongly attached to Canada” are also resistant to the idea.

Overall, the only main groups that favour an Alberta Pension Plan over the CPP are separatists, small-c conservatives, UCP voters, people who are very excited and optimistic about Alberta’s future, people who tune in daily to Rebel and Twitter for news, and those with very little attachment to Canada.

We also asked our 1213 respondents how they felt about Alberta’s next ten years. A majority of those who felt “strongly excited” or “strongly optimistic” about the province’s future support establishing a provincial pension plan. Conversely, three-quarters of those who felt “strongly pessimistic” or “strongly angry” are opposed to an APP.

Support for an APP aligns with partisanship in Alberta, as well. Close to nine-in-ten people who voted NDP in the 2023 provincial election oppose abandoning the Canada Pension Plan, while 43 percent of UCP voters support the move. Federally, Liberal (86 percent) and New Democrat (81) voters want to keep the CPP, nearly double the proportion of Conservative supporters. More federal Conservatives are opposed to an Alberta Pension Plan than favour it. Around one-quarter of Conservative voters at both levels neither support nor oppose establishing an APP.

Attitudes toward an Alberta Pension Plan vary depending on where people get their news. At 74 percent, opposition is strongest among people who tune into CBC (tv, radio, or web) on a daily basis, while support is highest (57) among those who view Rebel News every day. Divisions are also clear in terms of social media consumption, with people who get their daily news from Twitter more likely to support transitioning to an APP and those on Facebook more likely to oppose it.

Lastly, pension plan attitudes depend to an extent on education and occupation. Those with university degrees and retirees are most likely to oppose replacing the CPP with a provincial plan. Household income had little effect on support levels, although Albertans in the $160,000 to $199,999 category were most likely to back an APP.

Arguments For and Against

We presented respondents with a list of common arguments in favour and against adopting a provincial pension plan and asked them whether they agreed or disagreed with each statement. The results are presented in Figure 13.

While just under one-third of Albertans were persuaded by the notion that they would pay lower premiums and/or receive more benefits from an APP, more people disagreed than agreed with both notions.

Moreover, a majority of Albertans disagreed with the statements that “Regardless of whether it saves us money, an Alberta pension plan is better than the Canada Pension Plan” (59 percent) and “If Alberta leaves the Canada Pension Plan, the province is entitled to half the Plan’s assets” (53).

Only 22 percent of Albertans agreed that a provincial pension plan would be free from political interference, with a similar proportion believing they would be better off personally if Alberta left the CPP.

The Narrow Path Forward

Unless the policy environment shifts dramatically, the continued unpopularity of the Alberta Pension Plan would almost certainly result in a “no” vote in a province-wide referendum. While about one-in-five Albertans neither agree or disagree with abandoning the CPP, these are not the residents most likely to show up at the polls. For the government to win the referendum, it would need to persuade these undecideds to both support them and turnout to vote, and convert a sizeable portion of those currently committed to keeping the Canada Pension Plan. Existing arguments do not appear persuasive, in this regard.

Methodology

Under Principal Investigator, Dr. Feodor Snagovsky, Viewpoint Alberta conducted an online survey from January 22 to February 25, 2024, among a representative sample of 1,213 Alberta adults through Leger. The figures are weighted by age, gender, and region, according to census data. A copy of the questionaire is found here.