Is Separatism Mainstream in Alberta?

We spent the summer with hundreds of Albertans to find out.

Politically engaged Albertans have spent a lot of time debating the popularity of the Alberta independence movement lately. But there’s an important difference between popularity and acceptability.

About 30% of Albertans support or somewhat support the idea of separation, while most do not. This figure fluctuates but hasn’t changed substantively since 2019. While the numbers show the popularity of separatism, they don’t tell us about its mainstream acceptance.

If an idea is popular but seen as unacceptable, it rarely gains traction. If an idea is viewed as acceptable, even when most people disagree with it, it can spark real change. This summer, our team set out to learn whether separatism is truly mainstream in Alberta, and why or why not.

Every Common Ground focus group starts with the same activity: we ask our participants to simply “draw an Albertan.” Participants then share their drawings, and the group discusses which one most Albertans would imagine as typical. These conversations explore who Albertans see as representative. Asking how these “typical Albertans” view politics through a series of activities (described below) helps map the boundaries of acceptability in Alberta’s political culture. The “average Joe” is a personification of the Overton window.

Our focus groups vary in their depiction of the typical Albertan, but a dominant archetype shows up time and time again: Joe Alberta. In general, Joe is a man in his late 30s, lives in a rural or suburban area, is married with kids, works a blue-collar job, and is not terribly interested in politics but might describe himself as a “common-sense conservative.” For the rest of this blog, I will describe what “Joe” thinks about separatism as a stand-in for the typical Albertan selected by each group.

Figure 1. A drawing of the “Joe” type from one of our focus groups.

So, what did we find? Does “Joe” want Alberta to separate from Canada?

The Big Insight: The Typical Albertan is Separatist-Curious

Joe isn’t seen as a separatist, but he is separatist-curious. He wants Alberta to remain in Canada and make it work, but life has been getting harder lately, and maybe things would be better if Alberta went it alone. Or at least, Alberta needs to do something more drastic to get a better deal with Ottawa. He feels that Alberta has little power and that Albertans are neither well respected nor understood by the rest of the country.

Joe wouldn’t attend a separation rally on his own, though he would consider an invitation to do so. He probably wouldn’t vote to separate, though he might be tempted by the leverage it presents.

When Alberta separation comes up in each focus group, we ask what might pull Joe towards separatism and what pushes him away. I’ve broken down the main themes from each question below.

What Pulls “Joe” Towards Separatism?

There are two main pulls: cost-of-living and Alberta’s perceived lack of power in Canada.

Joe is feeling pinched relative to what he expects out of his life. He connects this to his perception that the rest of Canada is holding back Alberta’s economy. This view is deeply rooted for Joe—he grew up hearing about policies from Ottawa that made Alberta poorer to make other provinces richer (think National Energy Program). Even if he acknowledges that Alberta has it better than some other provinces, he doesn’t think that should mean he has to give up his slice of the seemingly shrinking pie (for example, through equalization). As one focus group participant put it: “Everyone expects us to share because we have more, but what if we’re tired of sharing.”

“Albertans are more concerned with their quality of life and the increased price of necessities than separatism, and remain firmly focused on their material conditions over abstract concepts.” - Amina Yassin, Common Ground research assistant

At the end of each focus group, we ask if Joe sees himself as having power or influence over politics and resoundingly, the answer is no. When we specifically ask about provincial or municipal politics, the no softens, but the bottom line is that Joe feels overlooked. He complains that every federal election is decided by the time they start counting votes in Alberta (which is underrepresented) and that federal politicians don’t really care or understand the province.

“Separatism cannot be considered a ‘fringe’ movement anymore…most typical Albertans were ‘separatist-curious’. This is because they had grievances towards the federal government, and, while true separatism is seen as an unrealistic and undesirable goal... they see this movement as addressing their concerns, and giving them a voice” - Nicole Alexander, Common Ground research assistant

Joe also doesn’t feel respected by other parts of Canada—specifically those in Ontario, Quebec, and the Vancouver area. In many focus groups, participants joked that if they had to describe how other parts of the country viewed the typical Albertan, it would get a lot more extreme. To some extent, this may reflect normal regional dynamics (akin to sibling rivalry), but it also indicates a larger sense of alienation.

What Pushes “Joe” Away from Separatism?

Even with the reasons outlined above, Joe isn’t a separatist. In fact, he thinks remaining in Canada is much more desirable and likely.

On the side of desirability, Joe is pushed away from separatism simply because he identifies with Canada and thinks highly of it, despite his political grievances. Recent polling data has shown roughly a third of Albertans identify mainly as Albertan, a third as Canadian, and a final third as both. However, in our own surveys, Albertans tell us they don’t like being forced to choose between these identities. They feel both to some degree. Joe is described in the same way. When he watches the Olympics, he’s Team Canada all the way. Joe doesn’t care whether Sidney Crosby is from Nova Scotia or Alberta; he just cares that he scored the Golden Goal and reps “our” colours.

“Many participants expressed that they viewed separatism less as a genuine desire to leave Canada and more as a bargaining tool. They preferred that the federal government negotiate and reach an agreement that would leave Albertans better off financially, rather than take on the risks and uncertainties of pursuing independence” - Chino Nwachukwu, Common Ground research assistant

Joe also doesn’t think separatism is practical. While he might see it as a valuable leverage point (though he rejects the idea of “blackmail”), participants usually didn’t think he would find it feasible. Going further, they often thought Joe would find separatism too risky to support:

“Joe might talk somewhat positively with his friends about separatism, but when push comes to shove, he’d back Canada over Alberta. Oftentimes the reason is simply prudential: he is a family man (whatever that might look like) with local commitments, whose first job is to protect his lot in life. …He wants a better place in Canada and wouldn’t get himself in a position where he’d be putting that ideal at material risk.” - Samuel Clark, visiting PhD student with Common Ground.

More About Our Approach

To gather our findings, our research team drove over 4068 kilometres across Alberta this summer. We conducted 21 focus group sessions with nearly 200 Albertans, visiting Edmonton, St. Albert, St. Paul, Lloydminster, Lethbridge, Hanna, Calgary, Grande Prairie, Lac La Biche, and Fort McMurray.

Starting with a shared picture of the “typical Albertan,” our focus groups then explored how this person views politics, particularly separatism. We had two sets of focus groups, splitting six activities between them. Below, I break down each activity and the insights from it.

1. Real Time Reactions: Participants responded to real quotes about separatism and identity, exploring how the typical Albertan would react to both the message and the messenger. People generally thought the typical Albertan would agree with the quotes expressing resentment and alienation about how Alberta is being treated, but often found the quotes from separatist leaders to be over the top. Near universally, participants do not think Joe trusts politicians as messengers.

2. Think, Say, Do: Participants were shown scenarios and asked what the typical Albertan would think, say, and do in each case. What became clear from this exercise is that Joe doesn’t want to engage in politics—he doesn’t have the time or energy. He might think something, but typically won’t engage unless it’s serious or affects him or his loved ones directly.

3. Mapping Canada and the U.S.: Participants divided a blank map into 5 or so regions and described how the typical Albertan sees and feels about those places. Joe almost always began with Alberta, sometimes extending to Saskatchewan and Northern B.C. The rest of B.C. was usually dismissed as a left-wing vacation spot, while Joe felt a general warmth toward the East Coast. Ontario and Quebec were almost always cast as entitled elites. And the U.S. typically didn’t get detailed, except as favourite travel destinations or with a nod to the Midwest and Texas.

4. Proud To Be: Participants watched short clips about Canada, Alberta, and separatism, and voted whether the typical Albertan would feel proud, neutral, or ashamed. These revealed that Joe’s identity, particularly his identification with Canada, is deeply rooted and emotional. While he agrees with the goals of some separatist leaders, he wants more nuance in their arguments and doesn’t tend to agree with aggressively pro-separatist arguments.

5. Wouldn’t It Be Nice If: Participants completed the phrase “When it comes to Alberta separatism, wouldn’t it be nice if…” from the perspective of the typical Albertan, using cards tied to different groups (e.g., Canadians, the Premier, the Prime Minister). The picture that emerged from this activity is that Joe wants Alberta to be more appreciated by the rest of Canada, the media, and federal leaders. He generally thinks Danielle Smith gets it right and that separatists go a bit too far.

6. Where Do We Go From Here: Participants placed pins on a grid to show how likely and desirable the typical Albertan would find 3 different future scenarios for Alberta (staying in Canada, independence, joining the U.S.). Overwhelmingly, participants thought that Joe would view remaining in Canada as both likely and desirable. Alberta’s independence was a more mixed prospect, being mainly viewed as unlikely but still somewhat desirable. Joe was flat out against Alberta joining the United States in the eyes of almost all participants, with perceived likelihood also being low. As one participant summarized, “Washington is even further than Ottawa.”

Through these activities and our opening and closing discussions, we got a rich picture of how people see the typical Albertan, their views on politics, and separatism in particular. In doing so, we were able to understand the deep story behind the polling.

Closing Thoughts

The conclusion from our research is clear: the typical Albertan doesn’t want to separate but gets why others do. Supporting separatism isn’t mainstream, though being curious about it is. The bridge between those viewpoints is not a long one.

We have to take separatism seriously, especially as recent changes in provincial legislation have made a citizen-initiated referendum likely in the near future, and some political elites appear to be stoking separatist flames for leverage, or at least doing little to assuage these sentiments.

In our travels across Alberta, I witnessed the vast diversity and beauty of our province. Alberta’s landscape ranges from the grasslands and Badlands in the south to the Rockies in the west to the boreal forest in the north and the prairies in the east. Even that description obscures the variation across this place. This variation came up frequently in our sessions. Most people, when asked, drew a fairly similar Albertan. But, a significant minority of people expressed how hard it was to hone in on one.

It’s because there isn’t one way to be an Albertan. There are many.

And while a lot of us have a picture in our heads of what a typical Albertan believes, says, does, and looks like, it often misses the mark. There is a gap between who Albertans are and who we think we are. This has huge implications for our politics, including on separatism. The discussions that lingered after our focus groups demonstrated to me that a lot of Albertans don’t feel fully represented in Alberta, but they want to be. It’s on each of us and our political leaders to better articulate the plurality of what it means to be an Albertan. No one group of people living here owns that identity.

Finally, I want to say a sincere thank you to everyone who participated in our focus groups and everyone who made them possible. As one participant said in giving feedback, “The time slipped away quickly and I left feeling renewed optimism for Alberta’s political future.” I feel the same way.

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If you are in the Edmonton area on October 4th or 5th, I encourage you to attend a special Common Ground focus group session. More information is available here, and a direct link to the registration form can be found here.

Stay tuned for a full analysis of our results in future articles. These findings will also contribute to a book entitled The Separatists: The Alberta Sovereignty Movement, co-authored by Jared J. Wesley, Rob Currie-Wood, Feodor Snagovsky, Gala Palavicini, and me (Samuel Goertz), coming in 2027.